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Airline tickets via capsule surprise machine – works in Japan!

This is intended to be a serious blog about the aviation industry, but even on a serious university blog there should be exceptions for what is unusual, fun and maybe even unusually fun news. One such piece of news comes from Japan, where the low-cost regional operator Peach Aviation has managed to come up with a new and innovative way of selling airline tickets (well, at least new to me). Given the intense competition in the industry any way to get an edge on competitors may be a good one and Peach has taken this to a new level (link below).

The new sales method is to sell tickets to random destinations via a “Gapachon machine”, which simply is the kind of machine often used to sell small plastic spheres with even smaller plastic toys inside to children. Most of us can probably remember the excitement of using such a machine as children; inserting coins, turning a knob and then getting to open the surprise sphere (rarely did the content live up to expectations, but the process was a reward in itself). Many will probably also remember sighing parents as parts of the battle to get these surprise toys.

Well, Peach now used this very method in a similar way; pay 5000 Yen (44 USD) and receive 6000 Yen (53 USD) worth of mileage points that can be used toward the destination stated on the voucher in the sphere. The airline supports the random destinations with arranged tours, to places like Sapporo, Nagoya, Fukuoka, and Naha. In addition, the bold traveller receives a badge as well as a mission for when they reach their destination.

As reported in the article, there was scepticism within Peach in regards to this new sales method. However, it has become a success and 150 capsules per day have been sold in recent months, with a total of about 3000 tickets having been distributed via this new channel. Given the popularity of this type of machines in Japan, as well as the general popularity of games of chance there, perhaps the success should not have been a surprise. However, not only has it been a success, it has also provided free promotion of the airline since the story about the new sales method has received a lot of attention both in Japan and around the world.

For the couple who cannot agree on where to go for a weekend trip maybe this way of getting a ticket could be practical and fun. Maybe people who are generally indecisive but want to travel appreciate this travel option. It will be interesting to see if this innovation in ticket sales will catch on outside of Japan. It does also make you think about what other methods for selling airline tickets may still be possible to come up with. Throwing darts at a rotating globe? Answer trivia questions on countries and your trip goes to the country for which you had the least number of correct answers? Let friends and family vote where you should go? It seems that there may be more room for innovation here.

Link to article:
Japan airlines’ surprise ticket gapachon machine helps boost sales

Anders Ellerstrand: Procedures 2 – As a “Memory Aid”

Procedures have an important role to play – as a ‘memory aid’. This is especially true when you run into an unusual situation, perhaps an emergency. For emergencies, and other unusual situations, it is common that the procedures to follow, are written as checklists.

This is especially helpful in cases where a number of different tasks is to be completed, where the sequence is important and where it is crucial that no item is omitted. Examples could be the shutting down or restarting large systems.

I’m not a professional pilot, but I have spent some time in airliner cockpits and my impression is that almost everything is done using checklists, an efficient way to assist with consistency and making sure no item is omitted.

However, the role of procedures as the organisational memory, is not limited to emergency checklists. During my career as an Air Traffic Controller, I have seen this often. There is a discussion about the proper way to handle a certain situation. Someone goes to fetch the ops manual, to find the page where the procedure is explained. There could still be a discussion, whether that really is the best way, but establishing what is the currently valid procedure usually ends the discussion. The only difference I’ve seen over the years is that the thick ops manual binder is today replaced by a computer and a screen.

One problem here is that emergency checklists are hopefully not used too often. Things might change in the systems or in connected systems. It is not always easy to realise that such changes could affect the actions needed to be performed in emergencies or other unusual situations. An effect could be that the checklists become partially outdated. I have seen such examples, but the effect of it was not serious, because as so often, humans are able to adapt. In this case, the actions in the checklist were changed, to fit with the new environment, a report was written, and the checklist was later updated. With a good outcome there was not too much fuzz about it. One could wonder what would have happened if the adaption had led to an incident…

Another aspect is that the importance of procedures as memory aids is not as pronounced with those procedures that are frequently used. The actions performed several times each day are rarely, if ever, invoking a check with the written procedures. Any ‘drift’ when it comes to the application of such procedures is typically done in incremental steps over a long period of time and thus rarely noticed. When, after a long time, this drift has left to a considerable deviation, you might still believe you are working strictly in accordance with the procedures. In these cases, you typically don’t use the procedures as a memory aid.

The use of procedures as ‘memory aids’ is important and of value, but not without problems.

Simon Ericson: Återhämtningen stod och stampade i september

Besök gärna Simons webbsida flyg24nyheter.com för fler flygnyheter på svenska från flygbranschen över hela världen.

I september avtog återhämtningen för flygresandet i Sverige och passagerarantalet var något mindre än i augusti. Under juli, augusti och september har passagerarsiffrorna legat stabilt vilket för september visar att affärsresandet kommit igång i den utsträckning att det motsvarar det mer inriktade fritidsresandet under juli och augusti.

Under årets nionde månad flög det 1 601 061 passagerare till och från landets flygplatser enligt Transportstyrelsens flygplatsstatistik. Det är en ökning med 122 procent jämfört med september år 2020 och en minskning med 61 procent jämfört med september år 2019. September är den tredje månaden i rad där passagerarminskningen varit ungefär 60 procent jämfört med före coronapandemin och återhämtningen har efter en ökning mellan maj och juli stabiliserat sig. Även om det är negativt att återhämtningen inte fortsätter uppåt visar passagerarsiffrorna för september att resandet under månaden, som är mer fokuserade på jobbresor än sommarmånaderna, motsvarar samma nivå av resande som juli och augusti där fritidsresenärer dominerar. Affärsresandet ser alltså ut att ha kommit i gång och i kombination med fritidsresandet motsvarar samma passagerarnivåer som under sommaren.

Stockholm Arlanda var, som vanligt, landets största flygplats i september med drygt 886 000 passagerare. Bakom Arlanda följer Göteborg Landvetter, Stockholm Skavsta, Stockholm Bromma och Malmö Airport. Noterbart är att Bromma flygplats visade på en stark ökning av passagerare med 349 procent jämfört med september år 2020 och har återhämtat sig bättre än exempelvis Arlanda och Landvetter jämfört med före pandemin. Anledningen till detta är att Bromma har en stor del inrikesresande vilket är det segment som återhämtat sig bäst hittills.

Under september visade samtliga flygplatser i landet med passagerartrafik på en positiv utveckling jämfört med september år 2020 med undantag för Sundsvall Timrå, Kristianstad och Karlstad. Både Karlstad och Kristianstad har inte haft någon reguljär flygtrafik under hela pandemin och passagerarantalen är små i september, 37 respektive 18. Detta förklarar den negativa utvecklingen där medan det för Sundsvall Timrå är mer bekymmersamt med en negativ utveckling. Sundsvall hade 1 870 passagerare i september i år vilket är fyra procent färre passagerare jämfört med september år 2020. Flygplatsen har under pandemin haft en tillfällig upphandling av flygtrafik till Stockholm varvat med kommersiell trafik med SAS. Sedan början av september flyger SAS återigen på kommersiella grunder mellan Sundsvall och Stockholm. Det har hittills inte givit någon positiv effekt jämfört med föregående år men det är en tydlig passagerarökning mellan augusti och september i år för Sundsvall Timrå Airport vilket ändå visar på en SAS-effekt i september jämfört med augusti när Air Leap flög till Sundsvall.

Noterbart för september är även att Pajala flygplats hade fler passagerare än vad man hade i september år 2019. Flygplatsen ökade antalet passagerare med 34 procent jämfört med september år 2019. De faktiska passagerartalen är dock små, 282 i september i år mot 210 i september för två år sedan, vilket förklarar en del av den relativt sett kraftiga ökningen. Det är givetvis positivt att Pajala åtminstone i september har återhämtat sig från pandemin och flygplatsen har tack vare upphandlad flygtrafik kunnat ha samma utbud som före pandemin.

Det är fortsatt flygplatserna norr om Stockholm som står emot pandemin bäst sett till passagerarsiffror vilket visar på betydelsen flyget har för många regioner i främst Norrland. Ett exempel på detta är att bland de 15 flygplatser som har återhämtat sig bäst i september jämfört med september år 2019 är elva belägna i Norrland medan de övriga är Stockholm Västerås, Visby, Ängelholm Helsingborg och Halmstad. Västerås flygplats har enbart utrikestrafik med Ryanair och denna trafik står uppenbarligen bra mot pandemin eftersom flygplatsen endast hade 24 procent färre passagerare i september jämfört med samma period före pandemin. För Visby flygplats är den positiva återhämtningen beroende på att flyget har en stor betydelse för förbindelser från Gotland till fastlandet. Flygplatserna Ängelholm Helsingborg och Halmstad ligger bland de sista på topp 15 listan över återhämtning men presterar bättre än många andra flygplatser i landet. Detta beror främst på att flygplatserna nästan uteslutande har inrikestrafik och också på att alternativa resvägar till Stockholm än flyg är begränsade jämfört med exempelvis Göteborg Landvetter som också har en stor andel utrikestrafik. Därför sker återhämtningen snabbare på de två förstnämnda flygplatserna medan flygtrafiken i större utsträckning konkurrerar med andra transportmedel på inrikestrafiken till och från Stockholm.

Sammanfattningsvis var september en stabil månad för flygresandet i Sverige där nivån av resenärer håller i sig jämfört med sommarmånadern vilket är positivt. I slutet av september slopades dessutom ett antal restriktioner i Sverige som kan komma att bidra till en positiv utveckling i oktober för flygresandet om resor i tjänsten fortsätter att öka i kombination med att fler semesterresor både inrikes och utrikes görs i takt med färre restriktioner.

Simon Ericson

Anders Ellerstrand: Procedures 1 – As part of a Design Process

When you design a new system or an addition to an existing system, part of the design is to write procedures. These will describe how the new design is to be used, to perform as intended and to achieve its goal, or typically many goals – like efficiency, quality and safety.

To write the procedures for a new design is however a challenging task. The procedures should describe how the system is to be used, not only in the normal, everyday situation but also in unusual, perhaps hard-to-foresee situations, including emergencies.

It is also important to make sure that the use of the new design is not having unintended consequences. In aviation, there are regulations that require any change to the existing functional system, to be assessed for safety. This is done in a process where hazards are identified, and related risks are assessed. Risks should then be removed or mitigated to reduce the risks to “As Low As Reasonably Practicable” (ALARP).

When writing the procedures, there is a need to understand the context that the design will be used in. However, the context typically changes, over the day, over the week, over the year and over time. It is hard (or impractical or even impossible) to write detailed procedures for every context. A simple example could be to write a procedure for parking a car. You probably adjust your way of parking, depending on if its day or night, if its summer or winter (with snow and ice), and depending on a lot of other aspects.

Other connected systems and the people working with them, will change and evolve. Thus, there will also be a need to update the procedures, during the lifetime of the system. One problem is that the context often changes first and only then do you see the need to update the procedures. Procedures development tends to be running a few steps behind reality. For simple, stand-alone systems, this might still be achievable. For systems that will interact with other systems in a complex environment, it is simply not possible to write the perfect procedures.

As the system is put into operation, the operators will discover the imperfections that are there. Perhaps there is a situation that was not foreseen at the time of design, or something in the context has changed since the procedures were written. In most cases, the operators still manage to get their work done, often by making small adaptions in the way they follow the procedures.

As the design is put into operations, there will thus always be a gap between ‘work-as-imagined’ (the procedures) and ‘work-as-done’ (the reality). Even if it is widely accepted that such a gap will almost always exist, it is also acknowledged that it is good if the gap is as small as possible. If the gap grows, the original procedures becomes less and less relevant and could even become completely redundant. The effect can be that the use of the design is ‘drifting’ from the intended (imagined) use, into areas that has not been safety assessed. This could create situations with threats to the system safety. There is also the possibility that the drift is improving safety – drift is not necessarily negative.

Finally, the procedures will also be used whenever you need to replace the design with a new, or if you want to improve your design. The old procedures can be the starting point for a new design.

Who is flying and how much? And is this good or bad?

Those of us who work in the aviation industry tend to think something along the lines of “everyone is flying these days”. Because of this perception, criticism linked to environmental issues that portrays aviation as a “luxury” is not well received. Still, as the rise of low-cost airlines around the world has sharpened an already competitive industry, the result has been lower ticket prices and a growth in the number of flights around the world. With this perspective in mind, it is not unreasonable to think that a vast majority of people in the world are now regularly coming onto an aircraft as passengers. The question is if this insider view of the aviation industry, or the one of aviation as a luxury for few, is the one more representative of the reality. This is probably a topic more suited for a thesis than a blogpost, but perhaps even a limited investigation can reveal something about which perspective that is closer to how things really are.

Starting with the question of who is flying, starting with the country with the largest aviation industry seems relevant, i.e. the US. In 2019 41% of the population had never flown, while another 28% fly once a year. That leaves 31% as regular or frequent fliers (Statista, 2019). In the UK, another country with a large aviation industry, the numbers for 2017 were 12% for those who never fly, with another 11% in the “very rarely” category, 9% in “rarely” and 30% in “occasionally”, leaving 38% as frequent fliers (Statista, 2017). Similar numbers for other countries were more difficult to find but as another example the total number of passengers flying to, from and within India in 2019 was 167 million (World bank, n.d). Even wrongly assuming that all those passengers were Indian, it would still represent a small fraction of its population. Looking at the number passengers carried for other countries in the same way gives the same picture, especially for developing countries. Adding to that some statistics on travel frequency per income and for the big picture there is not much more to reveal; it is true that even in developed countries where many fly, the majority do not fly often and those who do are in higher income brackets. For developing countries, flying remains a luxury for the few.

However, it is at the same time true that there has been an incredible increase of flying in recent decades; from less than half a billion passengers per year in 1970 to 4.4 billion in 2019 (World bank, n.d). This has had a dramatic effect for people around the world, even for those who only fly rarely. To focus only on one example, consider remittances, which is money sent as support from people working in another country back to family or other dependents in their home country. One specific example is the remittances from sent from Filipino workers overseas to their home country, which from grew from 103 million USD in 1975 to 10.7 billion in 2005 (BLES, 2006). The top countries in the world for remittances measured in total amount of money sent home are India, China, Mexico, Philippines, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Ukraine. Among the countries who depend most on remittances are Haiti, Nepal, Gambia, Moldova and Honduras. For these countries remittances represent around 20-30% of GDP, i.e. critical for the economy. This is money that makes a big difference in the lives of people who really need this support. According to the UN (link), remittances are three times more important than international aid and growing. Half of that money goes straight to rural areas, where the world’s poorest live. The UN states that this money “is key in helping millions out of poverty” and help in achieving at least seven of the 17 goals of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda (among them: no poverty, zero hunger, good health and well-being, quality education and clean water and sanitation). It would be a better world where people did not have to leave their families to support them, but in the world we live in this is the reality for many and without aviation it is difficult to see how this flow of income would be possible.

Which of the two perspectives on the aviation industry could we say is closer to reality – “everyone is flying” or “aviation is a luxury”? As so often, the more accurate picture is probably somewhere in between these two extremes. It is true that in most countries, the majority of the population fly rarely or not at all. It is however also true that there has been a dramatic increase of how many who flies in recent decades and that this has provided many benefits to many people. Many of those new passengers, even if they fly rarely, are working in other countries and improving the lives of many more. To what extent this more nuanced picture can influence views on the aviation industry is difficult to say, since one part of the picture can of course be much more emphasised than the other in support of whatever view someone had already. It should be possible to find agreement on that the aviation industry provides an essential service in a globalised world, as well as on that the current contribution to the environment from the industry needs to be swiftly and significantly reduced. Such an agreement would mean that we all can focus on how to get to a cleaner aviation industry, rather than on the current disagreements.

Anders Ellerstrand: Procedures – What about them?

In 2013, Andrew Hale and David Borys wrote a paper with the title: “Working to rule, or working safely?”. In it, they compare two different views on rules. One view is a classic top-down view, where rules act as limits of freedom of choice and violations are seen as negative. The other view is a bottom-up view. Here rules are constructions of operators as experts and competence is seen as the ability to adapt rules to the diversity of reality.

Sidney Dekker is debating this topic in many of his books, with lots of examples of poor use of regulations. Dekker´s latest book (I bought it but haven’t read it yet…) is called ‘Compliance Capitalism – How Free Markets Have Led to Unfree, Overregulated Workers’. Robert J. de Boer, in his book ‘Safety Leadership’, has a chapter called: “Alignment between Rules and Reality’.

One of the problems with procedures is this gap between the procedures and how things are done in real life. This is also frequently discussed, for example by Erik Hollnagel when he compares ‘Work-as-Imagined’ (the procedures) and ‘Work-as-Done’ (real life). This is further expanded by Steven Shorrock in his posts about ‘The Varieties of Human Work’ on www.humanistcsystems.com.

The topic of rules, regulations and procedures is interesting and the more you read and think about it the more complex it becomes. Why do we have them? Are they really that important? Who should write them and how should they be used? Could procedures be a problem, perhaps even the problem? This is really a topic for one or several books, but I will limit my attempt to a few posts in this blog, with my own reflections on some of the aspects.

Based on Hale and Bory’s paaper, and on the book by Boer, I suggest five good reasons for procedures (or rules or regulations) and will discuss each one in turn, in coming posts on the blog:
1. Procedures as part of a design process
2. Procedures as a ‘memory aid’
3. Procedures to assist in training
4. Procedures to enable collaboration
5. Procedures as a normative function

Some not so big (but interesting) airline news

When it comes to airline industry news there are plenty of articles and comments on manufacturers (mostly Airbus and Boeing) and the big airlines. Beyond that things get a bit more patchy when it comes to coverage. At the blog of Lund University School of Aviation we do cover big news but we also like different perspectives and diverse news (such as the opposite last week about food waste or this one about zombies airlines). Today the focus is on airline news that is not so big, but for different reasons still quite interesting.

First out is the news that the Vietnamese low-cost Bamboo Airways recently operated its first direct flight to the US (link to article below). In a time where many of the long-haul low-cost airlines that was started in the recent decade has disappeared or suffered badly, this is actually quite sensational. Especially as the national carrier Vietnam Airlines was expected to be first with this, but will now have to play catch-up, even after two decades of preparation (as per their own statement). It remains to be seen how the competition between the national carrier and its younger low-cost rival will play out, but that there even is competition is interesting enough to make it into this news compilation.

Next up is the national airline of Bahrain, Gulf Air, which recently announced flights to Tel Aviv in Israel (link to article below). Flights between Gulf countries and Israel had already been started in recent years, following the Abraham accord and normalisation of relations between countries in the region. Still, given the unexpected and historical change this represents more announcements of flights is still a piece of news worthy of attention.

The last piece of these not so big but interesting news is about Fly Okavango. This is a new luxury airline that aims to connect Europe and the US to the Okavango delta in Botswana. The same area is called “the jewel of the Kalahari” and is known for its unique wildlife. The plan is to operate a Boeing B767 in what s seems to be a business class only setting of 96 flatbed seats. Targeting passengers with more money than time the aim is to start with two routes, one from Munich and one from Palm Beach, Florida. To make more interesting, the plan going forward seems to be to increase the number of routes when am advertised Airbus A340 doubles the fleet next year.

That is it for this post. If our readers have any tips on news they would like to see covered or maybe even write about on this blog – just let us know in the comments or by sending an email to nicklas.dahlstrom@tfhs.lu.se. The different and diverse your suggestions are, the more likely that we will write about them.

Link to articles:
Bamboo Airways launches ‘historic’ direct Vietnam -US flight
Bahrain’s Gulf Air launches direct flights with Israel’s Tel Aviv on September 30

Simon Ericson: Varför satsar flygbolagen på flygskammens land?

Besök gärna Simons webbsida flyg24nyheter.com för fler flygnyheter på svenska från flygbranschen över hela världen.

Den senaste tiden har Ryanair, Finnair och Lufthansabolaget Eurowings tillkännagivit att man öppnar upp baser på Stockholm Arlanda och med det öppnar upp många nya flyglinjer. Men varför väljer flera flygbolag nu att satsa på Sverige, flygskammens hemland, när flygbranschen återhämtar sig?

Ryanair, Finnair och Eurowings ska etablera baser på Arlanda flygplats. För Ryanair och Eurowings är det Boeing 737 respektive Airbus A320 som ska flyga inom Europa medan Finnair ska flyga långlinjer med Airbus A350 från Stockholm. Det är tre signifikanta etableringar på den svenska flygmarknaden genom att man baserar flygplan på Stockholm Arlanda Airport när Ryanair satsar på Arlanda i stället för Skavsta, Finnair baserar Airbus A350 utanför Finland för första gången och Eurowings startar sin femte bas utanför Tyskland. Ryanair tillför 22 linjer, Finnair fem långlinjer och Eurowings 20 linjer framöver till Sverige och Stockholm, en del av linjerna trafikeras redan idag medan vissa blir helt nya.

Redan före coronapandemin minskade antalet resenärer på den svenska marknaden och pandemin har sedan inneburit att resandet rasat och nu befinner sig i en återhämtningsfas. Minskningen före coronapandemin berodde bland annat på flygets klimatpåverkan och ”flygskam”, men också en avtagande ekonomisk utveckling påverkade. Sverige utmärkte sig dock bland de europeiska länderna med en negativ utveckling för flygtrafiken och detta berodde på en minskad kapacitet som bland annat ett svar på en lägre efterfrågan på grund av flygskam. Med detta i baktanke är det troligen så att den svenska flygmarknaden kommer att få det tuffare än andra marknader att återhämta sig. Ryanair, Finnair och Eurowings verkar dock inte tro detta eftersom de satsar på den svenska flygmarknaden.

Coronapandemin har inneburit att flygtrafiken minskat kraftigt och flygbolagen letar efter nya platser där man kan använda sina flygplan och generera intäkter. Exempel på detta är att en del passagerarflygbolag börjat flyga mer frakt, Wizz Airs inrikestrafik i Norge och TUIs försök till vinterflyg till Sälen från inrikesdestinationer i Sverige. Man söker sig alltså mot marknader som påverkats mindre av pandemin än andra i hopp om att lindra det ekonomiska blodbad som pågått och pågår. För Finnair och Eurowings är det troligen detta som påverkar flygbolagen att expandera i Sverige trots den svenska marknadens negativa utveckling före pandemin. Finnair har för många långlinjeflygplan i flottan i förhållande till efterfrågan på långlinjer som utgår från deras hemmanav i Helsingfors medan Eurowings befintliga marknader i centrala Europa har som de flesta minskat under pandemin och i stället letar man nya intäkter genom att etablera sig på nya marknader. Ryanair skiljer sig i viss mån mot de övriga två eftersom en del av Ryanairs etablering på Arlanda sker på bekostnad av bolagets flyglinjer på Skavsta som läggs ner under vintertidtabellen. Samtidigt har Ryanair inte haft någon bas på Skavsta flygplats sedan i början av år 2020 och därför innebär basen på Arlanda att man ändå gör en ny satsning på den svenska marknaden.

Förutom att de tre flygbolagen försöker att hitta nya strömmar av intäkter genom att ge sig in på den svenska marknaden är en minskad konkurrenssituation i Sverige troligen en faktor som bidrar till flygbolagens beslut.

Under pandemin har Norwegian minskat sin verksamhet kraftigt vilket minskat konkurrensen på inrikes- och utrikeslinjer till och från Stockholm. Under sommaren i år har lågprisbolaget dock återstartat en del linjer från Arlanda, men det har varit relativt lite lågpris-närvaro på Arlanda och troligen är det detta lågprisbolagen Ryanair och Eurowings ser som en möjlighet att ta marknadsandelar i Sverige. Pandemin har också inneburit att långlinjetrafiken minskat kraftigt från Stockholm och det är troligtvis det som Finnair ser som en möjlighet för bolaget. Sverige har också en lägre konkurrens jämfört med andra marknader i Europa. I exempelvis Spanien kan flygbolag som easyJet, Vueling, Ryanair, Volotea, Iberia och Air Europa konkurrera på samma marknad medan det i Sverige oftast är två flygbolag, främst SAS och Norwegian, som konkurrerar på flyglinjerna. Detta kan också vara en faktor som gör att Ryanair och Eurowings väljer Sverige, för att undgå konkurrens från många flygbolag. Dessutom fanns det indikationer före pandemin på att lågprisflygbolagen inte påverkas av flygskam på sätt som övriga flygbolag.

Det är intressant att se hur tre flygbolag väljer att satsa på flygskammens land, Sverige, i spåren av pandemin som delvis förändrar förutsättningarna för flygbolagen. Möjligen är det så att alla av Ryanair, Finnair och Eurowings inte hade etablerat baser på Arlanda om inte pandemin inträffat. Med en jakt på intäkter från nya marknader och viss mån en minskad konkurrens i Sverige ser flygbolagen uppenbarligen möjligheter i Sverige. Om det faktiskt blir en framgång återstår att se.

Simon Ericson